Drought Conditions Developing For Central Texas

With the recent hot and dry weather pattern that we have been seeing around Central Texas and most of the Lone Star state, drought conditions are developing and getting worse in areas to the South and West. Looking at the map to the right, we see all of Central Texas now in a slight drought with parts of Bell, Milam, and Williamson counties now in a moderate drought. Areas around Austin and San Antonio seeing a Severe Drought conditions and parts of the Hill country and the Big Bend area of Texas seeing an Extreme Drought as of now. With no good rain insight, these drought conditions will continue to get worse and spread.

The map to the right is a look at the weather pattern at the 300 millibar level or thats about 30,000 feet up in the atmosphere. This is the upper level of the atmosphere and where we look for the Jet Stream or storm track that brings weather systems across the country. I labeled the ribon of fast winds or that Jet Stream over the Northern U.S. and the Midwest. This where all the rain and active weather has been. This is why they are seeing such massive flooding up in the Midwest because of the weather pattern bringing them so much rain. If you look down near Texas, there is a big "H" I have placed where the upper level high pressure ridge continues to dominate our weather and keep most of us hot and dry. As long as this high stays around, the weather will not change much. Temperatures are running about 5 to 7 degrees above normal for this time of year and we are now in a deficit for rainfall. Earlier this spring we had plenty of rain fall to get us in the plus range but we have erased those gains and now falling behind. The last good rainfall we had here in Central Texas was back in Early May or about a month ago. Since then its been bone dry. As I look ahead, I do not see any changes in the near future with the computer models and data. Right now it looks to be a long, hot, and dry summer ahead which is not great news.

I will have more about your weather forecast coming up tonight at NBC 6 News at 10 pm. Be sure to catch your accurate and depending forecast with me then. Thanks for visiting this evening.

Take Care and Stay Cool...

Mike Griffin
NBC 6 WeatherPlus Meteorologist

Tropics Remain Quiet on This Friday the 13th...

The Tropics are quiet as of now and here is what is going on down there. If you click on the picture, you can see a bigger view of this graphic. There is a swirling upper level low pressure in the Western Gulf of Mexico moving towards the west. Now this is an upper level low pressure and not a surface base low near the ground or ocean. We do not worry so much about Upper level systems because this system is a high atmosphere weather situation and is not favorable to produce a tropical system. For a tropical system to develop, we need a low level low pressure system that is surface based. A surface low basically. To the right is a closer visible satellite picture of the Unsettled weather in the Western Gulf. This will bring some much needed showers to Northern Mexico and Deep South Texs over the weekend. In the Caribbean, I highlight where there are some streaky clouds do to fast high level winds way up in the atmosphere. This is also an area of non favorable conditions because for tropical systems to form, we need light winds and no shear, with over all quiet weather around the surface low. And looking at the latest satellite picture and conditions, I don't see anything to be concerned about now or in the near future. Models do no show anything in the tropics for the next 7 to 10 days as of right now.
This is a special satellite picture called QuickSat which allows us to see wind direction and wind speeds from a satellite over the oceans and this is a handy tool when we don't have very many weather observations over the water areas. This also confirms that there is no low level low pressure center in the Gulf where the unsettled weather is.

I hope you enjoyed today's Tropical Update on my blog. This weekend I will be putting together some maps closer to home here in Central Texas of the developing Drought conditions that we are experiencing. So check back in on my weather blog and make sure you catch me on NBC 6 News with your weekend forecast and more about the Drought here in Texas on Saturday 6pm and 10 pm and Sunday 5 pm and 10 pm.

Take Care!

Mike Griffin
NBC 6 WeatherPlus Meteorologist

A Little Relief in the Forecast Late Monday...

Howdy Yall,

Great weather news to share with you this Sunday evening. I see some relief from the hot and dry weather in the way of some rain and thunderstorms moving in late Monday afternoon into Monday night. I am tracking a cool front in the Panhandle this evening and looking at the latest model data coming in, it looks promising to make its way close to Central Texas Monday night. This would mean a decent chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms and from the latest upper level support and dynamics, we could see a few strong and severe storms. I don't think Tornadoes will be a threat but strong gusty winds and some hail is possible. I see a MCS to form with these Panhandle storms and work their way to the Southeast towards Central Texas. MCS mean Meso Convective System or bascially a fancy name for a line of strong to severe storms organized into a small scaled front. The leading edge of the MCS usually producings strong gusty winds and alot of lightning along with some heavy rainfall.

This is a look at the Futuretrac computer model for 5 pm Monday afternoon. This is why I am excited to tell you about the rain chances. Its been about 3 weeks since we have seen some decent rainfall around our area. That line of storms forming on the dopplernet picture above will move into our Northwestern counties by late Monday afternoon. I think the Waco, Temple, and Killeen area can expect the storms to move in about 7 to 9 pm Monday evening.

And looking at the upper level energy and the jet stream winds, I am thinking we have a slight risk for the entire area for some strong and severe storms Monday afternoon into Monday night. I see decent shear levels and some strong convergence at the leading edge of these storms with good inflow of Gulf moisture thanks to the low level jet that will be kicking in later tonight. Low level jet will be about 40-50 knots feeding into this system along with the upper level winds pushing this complex southeastward. This risk area will stretch all the way up to the Great Lakes region.

Also with the nature of the slow moving storms and heavy downpours, we could see some good rainfall. I am estimating about half inch to up to one inch of rain possible. This is great news because we rarely see a cool front make its way all the way down to Central Texas this time of year. But this front will wash out and move back northward on Tuesday. So that means not much relief from the heat as in the way of cooler temperatures or drier air. The heat and humidity stays with us through out the week.

Lets Keep our fingers crossed for some good rain because after this shot, it looks hot and dry for the rest of the week thanks to high pressure building back in...

Be sure to check my accurate forecast on NBC 6 News at 10 pm later on this evening...

Mike Griffin
NBC 6 WeatherPlus Meteorologist

Where and When to Expect Tropical Trouble in the Months Ahead...

All is quiet in the tropics as we are in the very beginning of the 2008 Hurricane Season. As you might be aware from last weekend, we already had our first Tropical Storm named Arthur which affected the Yucatan region near the country of Belize. Our look out now would be for the next tropical storm which would be named Bertha when it forms. But, I am happy to say that the tropics are looking good and I do not see anything in the near future in the latest model data that is coming in. By the way, you can click on all the graphics for a bigger look.

So my topic for this evening is "Where and When to Expect Tropical Trouble in the months ahead..." Lets start out with June, its still early and things are just warming up in the tropics so we don't expect much. Infact its every other year we typically see a tropical storm form in the month of June. And since we just had Arthur last weekend at the first of June, that might be a wake up call signaling an above average season has begun. Climatology in the tropics show we typically see tropic trouble in the Gulf and extreme Western Caribbean for the month of June. Its not unheard of to see something outside of the shaded region highlighted, but on average this is where we usually look for tropical systems to possibly develop.

As we head into July, we expand this look out region a little further into the Caribbean and the region around the Bahamas. This is because winds are becoming more favorable in these areas and the water is slowly warming up further into the Atlantic. On average we might see one or two tropical storms form and sometimes one of them could reach hurricane status especially by late July. But July is still consider a slow month in the terms of tropical development on average.

Now lets look at August and this is when things really start heating up in the Hurricane Season. If I had to choose the two big months for tropical trouble, they would be August and September. Infact, do you remember Hurricane Andrew that happened in 1992 and slammed into South Florida and later into Southern Louisiana. Hurricane Andrew first formed just north of Puerto Rico and moved across the Bahamas in late August. So August is the month we start looking for the big storms to form and its usually a busy time in the tropics. The look out region stretches deeper into the East Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa.

September is the busiest month for tropic trouble. The peak of hurricane season is September 10th if we look at the long term average for the past 100 years. Basically the whole Atlantic Basin is open for tropical development. From the coast of Africa to the U.S. we watch out for storms to form. This is also known as the Cape Verde Season because the systems that roll off the coast of Africa near these islands is an area where these big storms start to form and move across the entire Atlantic gaining steam and power as they make their way into the Caribbean or up the Eastern Seaboard. Now we really pay attention on the track of these storms because if they come through the Caribbean, then they have a chance to slip into the Gulf. This is when things get rough for folks along the Gulf Coast because once a storm is the in the Gulf, theres no way out for these storms and someone along the Gulf is going to be affected. If you remember back in 2005, Hurricane Katrina and Rita both formed near the Bahamas and slipped through the Florida Keys into the Gulf and later blasted the Louisiana Coast.

After we get through the busy month of September, the tropics begin to slow down into October. The area of concern shrinks back to the West into the Caribbean, Gulf, and the Eastern Seaboard. Usually by the end of October, we really see the tropics settling down. We can still see some big storms during this month but the upper level winds begin to become unfavorable and harsh for tropical systems. Also the Jet Stream across the U.S. helps steer most of the storms off to the East and recurve them out to open sea.

November is the end of the Hurricane Season and usually very quiet. The season is wrapping up and the conditions are becoming harder for tropical systems to form. We can still see storms develop in the Western Caribbean up towards the island of Bermuda. Its unlikely that any storms will affect the U.S. coastline on average and most storms are blown off into the Atlantic towards the East.


Here is the list of names for the 2008 Hurricane Season. Remember when a tropical system becomes a tropical storm (winds over 39 mph), then its given a name. When a tropical storm reaches winds over 74 mph, then its given the hurricane status. These names are rotated every 6 years by the Hurricane Center. When there is a very big and bad hurricane that causes alot of damage or loss of life, those names are retired and will never be used again.

Do you have friends or family that live in Hurricane Alley, within 100 miles of the U.S. coastline? Are they prepare for the upcoming busy Hurricane Season? With gas prices very high, do you think less people will be able to evacuate from the danger areas if a storm threatens the Texas Coast? I would like to hear from you and your comments...

Have a great Weekend and stay cool!

Mike Griffin
NBC 6 WeatherPlus Meteorologist

Why is it Hot and Dry Here in Central Texas?

The Lazy, Hazy Days of Summer are finally here and its only the First of June. As we all know living in Central Texas that the next 3 to 4 months will be mainly hot and dry from years past. So why did we go from a stormy May into a very quiet and dry Early June? Well... you have can blame it on this High Pressure Ridge that is sitting on top of the Lone Star state. In the picture is an illustation of what this upper level high pressure looks like in the atmosphere as it plants itself on top of Texas. Here is a little meteorology for you... High Pressure is air that is sinking towards the surface of the Earth. The complete opposite is happening during a Low Pressure area. In a Low, the air is rising up away from the surface. When you have rising air, that can help make clouds and rain. This is why we associate Low Pressure with unsettled and sometimes stormy weather. Underneath a High, we usually associate it with fair or good weather conditions. Because sinking air in the atmosphere inhibits and detour cloud development, hence we usually have alot of sunshine and clear skies. This particular high pressure that usually sets up on top of the southern U.S. in the Summer time is called the Bermuda High Pressure system. This big high dominates the weather pattern from Texas eastward towards Florida and off the East coast towards Bermuda. And from time to time will reposition itself East to West in this general area. This is why most of the time are weather is quiet and hot during the Summer months unless we have an unusal cool front moving down from the North or we have some kind of Tropical Trouble coming in from the Gulf. Otherwise, its mostly sunny, hot, and dry for us till October and the changing of the seasons.

Recently, I have been asked about our computer model software or more commonly known as our Futuretrac and how it works. Too the left are a couple snapshots of what you see at home when watching the weathercast on NBC 6 News during weather. The TrueView Futuretrac is exclusive to the NBC 6 WeatherPlus Team because we are the only guys in town with this technology and resources. I have to say its amazing sometimes on how well it picks up on different weather patterns and weather events here across Central Texas. Its sometimes scary because some of the models we will look at do not show anything happening for us and this computer model which is run in our WeatherPlus Center several times a day will show something to us and it actually happens or unfolds to reality. Let me give you a couple of examples... Remember the Easter Snow Storm last year. Now I was working that weekend and none of the models picked up on that snow event except our very own Futuretrac and nailed the bulls eye on Bell county. That to me was very neat to see happen from our weather technology.

Another example was last month when we had several rounds of severe storms come through our area. Infact, we had three different rounds happening about 6 to 8 hours apart during the night and the next day. That was the event that caused all that wind damage in Salado and in southern Bell county. Our Futuretrac did an awesome job picking up on the severe storms and the timing of that event while other models had no clue what was going on. Futuretrac take in all the current and past weather data around Central Texas and generates forecast weather conditions up to 48 hours out using physics and equations that we have learned over the years about how the atmosphere works. So I like to heavily weigh my forecast on the output and information from this computer model. Now all models are not 100% right and do have flaws sometimes. But the technology today is so much better than what we had just a few years ago and is constanly improving in accuracy.

On the Futuretrac, we have the only 3D clouds and trueview technology in this market. It gives you a virtual look at what the weather is going to do in a very realistic way. It also shows how the temperatures will change through out the day in your hometown. The pictures I posted on here shows you for example the 6 am morning temperature with the future weather conditions and the 5 pm afternoon temperature.

At NBC 6 WeatherPlus, we are always trying to develop new ways to show you and tell you the weather in an informative and interesting way. Anyone can get infront of a temperature map and "read" you the weather. But I like to try to explain and teach you a little bit about meteorology as I do my weathercast and with the graphics behind me on TV.

Well I think I will wrap up this session of my blog today. I hope it gave you some new insight about how a High Pressure weather system works and about how our Futuretrac computer model works. Have a great night and try to say cool!

Mike Griffin
NBC 6 Meteorologist

The 2008 Hurricane Season Starts June 1st...

Howdy Yall...

Thanks for stopping by my Weather Blog and checking things out. I have decided to start this back up again and get the conversation started about weather topics. This is a way for me to write about weather and get you the audience informed and involved. If you have any weather questions or comments, you are very welcome to leave them on here. I always try to get back to everyone that has questions and comments. If there is something you always wondered about our weather locally or anywhere else, I am happy to talk about it. I also like to feature local weather pictures and photos on here as well during weather situations. So sit back, relax, and lets getting this started...

If you were watching my weathercast Saturday evening on NBC 6, I was telling you about the upcoming Hurricane Season which starts tomorrow (Sunday June 1st through November 30th) and its going to be a busy one from the NOAA forecast. I have some experience in tropical weather and forecasting, Before I moved back to Texas back in Fall of 2006, I was working down in Lake Charles, Louisiana at a station right there along the coast of Louisiana. I was there for a few years and yes, I had to deal with Hurricane Katrina and Rita back in 2005. You talk about scary! That was a big mess and to live and deal through it was rough. The official forecast for the 2008 Hurricane season is calling for 12 to 16 named Tropical storms. Six to nine hurricanes forecasted which means storms with winds above 74 mph. Two to Five major or intense hurricanes forecasted which means storms with winds over 115 mph. The waters are warming up down there in the Gulf and Caribbean and the peak of the hurricane season is usually around the middle of September. As of Saturday evening, we have our first Tropical Storm of the season located near Belize down on the Yucatan. This storm will weaking over land but reemerge over the Bay of Campeche by late Sunday. It will have a chance to regain its tropical storm status before moving back over Mexico near Veracruz staying far south of Texas. Our ridge of High pressure inplace will keep this storm on a westward track and not allow it to come further North into the Gulf of Mexico.

Back closer to home, thank goodness we had some decent rain a few weeks ago and our rainfall as of right now is actually still in the surplus for the year because we are heading into a hot and dry period around Central Texas. This is a look at the weather pattern and basically its quiet for us. We have a big ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere keeping us toasty and hardly a cloud in sight. The main storm track or what we call the "jet steam" is further north across the Rocky Mountains and back towards the Midwest. This is where all the active weather is and will continue for quite some time. I don't see any change in this weather pattern for the next 7 to 10 days. Also with this ridge of high pressure over the state of Texas, it will keep any tropical systems away from Texas and brush them off towards the South or East. Hence, we are expecting Tropical Storm Arthur to go down into Mexico and we should have no effects from it.


Here is a quick reminder that Rain or Shine, you can always get your accurate NBC 6 WeatherPlus forecast anytime you are away from your TV by listening to your favorite Clear Channel Radio stations here across Central Texas. Whenever we have bad weather, we also break in on live programming on NBC 6 and our Clear Channel Radio stations for a live and the up most latest important weather information for you and to keep you ahead of the storms. You can also track the storms at home by clicking on the NBC 6 Live Dopplernet, just look for the picture on the side of this web page along with your current 7 day forecast. We always love hearing from you our audience anytime and you may email us at weather@kcentv.com. I always like to hear from you personally and you can email me at mgriffin@kcentv.com and tell me what you think about this new blogging idea. I am going to try to update this blog every couple of days if not more often than that. I look forward to hearing from you on here...

Have a wonderful Weekend and stay cool!

Mike Griffin

Copperas Cove Tornado Pictures

One minute, the skies were sunny and the next, horror came dropping out of the skies on Father's Day. That is what some residents of Copperas Cove saw when a tornado ripped through one neighborhood on the south side of the Cove. The tornado came without much warning. It touched down in several places with most of the damage in the area near Sleepy Hollow Lane and FM 2657. At least 12 homes were damaged and 18 people were forced to find another place to stay. One person was injured by the high winds and debris.

Thanks to one of our NBC 6 Viewers who emailed the WeatherPlus team, I have a couple of pictures to share with you. The pictures show the lowering of the cloud and storm. This is known as a wall cloud and you can clearly see it in both of these pictures. The wall cloud is where the tornado drops out of and touches the ground. In the picture to the left, you can see the wall cloud lowering to the hills in the distance. You can click on any of the pictures to see a bigger image.

If you see breaking weather around Central Texas and have a digital camera, take some pictures and you can email them to me here at weather@kcentv.com . I will be glad to share them on the weather with our viewers and on this blog. If you want to know more about the heavy rain threat for Central Texas, click on the next post for a look.

-Mike

Turn Off the Water...Enough Already!

You would never imagine that someone would say enough is enough about rainfall, especially in an area where Texas has been stricken with a drought for several years. Well, thats the case right now over most of Texas and right here in Central Texas. I have never seen a weather pattern like this before where it just continues to rain over the same drenched areas for weeks and weeks. The image to the left shows the rain fall total for just the month of June. And many areas of Central Texas have seen anywhere from 4 to 6 inches or rain if not more. Officially at the Waco Regional Airport so far we have seen 5.40" for the month of June as of June 24th. Waco's normal June rainfall is 3.08" which we have already passed that. So far for the year 2007, Waco has recorded 34.84". And to just put things inperspective, the normal yearly average rainfall is 33.34" which again we have already passed that as of June 24th. We are nearly 18.02" above normal to date.The lakes are high and the rivers are swollen thanks to the heavy rainfall. Many wonder if they will even get to spend their 4th of July holiday out on the lake due to the closure of many lakes around Central Texas at this time. Some lakes in the area are anywhere from 8 to 19 feet above their normal pool level. And the bad news is, more rain is in the forecast for the same areas hardest hit with the recent flooding problems. Its not only the recreation aspect of things getting hurt by the heavy rains, the farmers are also dealing with problems from the flooding. There has been more rainy, cloudy days than there has been dry, sunny ones for them to get out in the fields and work on their crops.

Here is a look at the next round of possible flooding rainfall for Central Texas. This map shows a bulls eye over South Central Texas for Monday for up to an inch and a half of rain possible.





The next graphic shows the bulls eye of heaviest projected rainfall to move up I-35 into Central and North Texas on Tuesday. The amount could exceed another inch in most areas.




And finally this graphic is for Wednesday and showing the same areas getting more heavy rain fall with another inch and a half of rainfall possible for the middle part of the week. So adding all that up and some areas could be facing with another 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in the next few days...


The threat for flash flooding will be possible for the early part of the week so as the rains start up again and many of the swollen creeks and rivers start to rise over local highways and streets. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown.

As always, we like to get your responses and comments about the weather and how we can better give you the forecast. This blog is a way to pull back the curtain a little bit about weather and give you an inside look at the behind the scenes of forecast this crazy weather. We are trying to get you more involved with the weather and the NBC 6 WeatherPlus Team. If you have a digital camera and see something that would be interesting for a Weather Photo, take some pictures and email them to us at weather@kcentv.com

This blog is something new that I am just started doing. I will periodically post on here about different stuff about the weather locally and around the country. I will also post weather photos that you the reader and viewers from NBC 6 emailed into the WeatherPlus Team.

Before I go here is one of those pictures from Joe Sadler. He captured this near Bruceville the other day of some very scary storm clouds just above the horizon.

Thanks for stopping by...

-Mike